Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $147,454$ on 2020-12-05

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,102$ on 2020-12-05

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,495$ on 2020-12-05

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $344,497$ on 2020-12-05

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,324$ on 2020-12-05

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $78,573$ on 2020-12-05

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,709,991$ on 2020-12-05

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $59,514$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,844.9}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 51.2)}}\) (asimptote \(37,844.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $754,169$ on 2020-12-05

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $14,581,337$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,557,581.1}{1 + 10^{-0.006 (t - 286.0)}}\) (asimptote \(28,557,581.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $281,186$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{266,053.4}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 120.9)}}\) (asimptote \(266,053.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,724,125$ on 2020-12-05

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,710,379$ on 2020-12-05

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $61,111$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,216.9}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 49.6)}}\) (asimptote \(44,216.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,645,618$ on 2020-12-05

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $278,912$ on 2020-12-05

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,067$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,943.1}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 53.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,943.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $271,845$ on 2020-12-05

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,183,640$ on 2020-12-05

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $18,839$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,288.0}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 44.7)}}\) (asimptote \(10,288.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $312,221$ on 2020-12-05

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Saudi Arabia recovered 94%
Qatar recovered 93%
Chile recovered 88%
El Salvador recovered 81%
Bolivia recovered 80%
Kuwait recovered 77%
Trinidad and Tobago recovered 71%
Nepal recovered 69%
Maldives recovered 69%
Czechia recovered 69%
Venezuela recovered 64%
Jordan recovered 62%
India recovered 60%
Togo recovered 48%
Armenia recovered 45%
Slovakia recovered 39%
Austria recovered 38%
Bangladesh recovered 35%
Guyana recovered 34%
Ethiopia recovered 31%
Malaysia recovered 25%
Poland recovered 21%
Romania recovered 19%
Portugal recovered 17%
Jamaica recovered 15%
Italy recovered 6%

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $358,526$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{345,654.9}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 107.8)}}\) (asimptote \(345,654.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,954$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,849.1}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 130.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,849.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,010$ on 2020-12-05

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $139,783$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{127,697.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 99.9)}}\) (asimptote \(127,697.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $239$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{225.6}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 97.1)}}\) (asimptote \(225.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,484$ on 2020-12-05

Chile⮸

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $558,668$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{509,690.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 119.1)}}\) (asimptote \(509,690.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $15,592$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,278.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 117.2)}}\) (asimptote \(14,278.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,826$ on 2020-12-05

El Salvador⮸

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $39,718$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,274.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 137.3)}}\) (asimptote \(36,274.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,153$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,052.9}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 134.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,052.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,279$ on 2020-12-05